Reserch Project on Security without Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence
Research Project on Security without Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence
Pursuing a world without nuclear weapons, HOPe looks beyond nuclear deterrence and seeks security without reliance on nuclear weapons. In the complicated world of multipolarization, unstable regional affairs, and advanced and emerging technologies, security system and arrangements are transforming. Working together with domestic and international experts, HOPe rethinks nuclear deterrence and envisions what security without reliance on nuclear weapons looks like from a global and regional perspective.
THEMES and PAPERS
FY 2024
Clearing the Path for Nuclear Disarmament: Confidence Building in the Korean Peninsula
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Summary:This paper explores possibilities for building confidence in the Korean peninsula to address the conflict dynamics and militarization in the region. It argues that a key reason for the failure of past diplomatic efforts has been the coercive approach in pursuit of immediate nuclear disarmament in North Korea.
In addition to a more incremental approach to North Korean - United States nuclear diplomacy focused on arms control, the paper highlights the need for reciprocity in terms of sanctions relief, as well as more robust confidence-building measures aimed at reducing instability and addressing the security rationales behind North Korea’s nuclear policy.
At the same time, it proposes embedding nuclear diplomacy into a broader framework of cooperative risk reduction and arms control that also includes South Korea and possibly other regional actors. If sustained over time, such a framework could ultimately also promote nuclear disarmament alongside the normalization of political relations between key conflict parties.
FY 2023–FY 2024
Envisioning Global Security without Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence
The Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI)
*Coming soon
Project Overview (RUSI website)
FY 2022–FY 2023
Reducing Reliance on Nuclear Weapons: The Role of “Umbrella States”
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Research Paper (June 2024):
Reducing the Role of Nuclear Weapons in Military Alliances
Author: Dr Tytti Erasto, Senior Researcher, Weapons of Mass Destruction Program
Summary:This paper examines the role of nuclear weapons in military alliances, focusing on the perspectives of the so-called umbrella states, that is, allied states that do not have their own nuclear weapons but are part of the “extended nuclear deterrence arrangements” of a nuclear-armed patron. After analyzing allied security thinking and highlighting the underlying assumptions about nuclear deterrence, this paper subjects some of those assumptions to critical scrutiny. Considering the regional military balances and escalation risks related to nuclear deterrence, it challenges the perceived security benefits of forward-deployed nonstrategic weapons, continued support for allied nuclear doctrines based on readiness for the first use of nuclear weapons, and the assumed inevitability of a second nuclear strike that underlies the practices of nuclear assurance. The objective is to initiate a discussion on the development of a more measured approach to deterrence, with the aim of minimizing the role of nuclear weapons in military alliances.
Research Paper (June 2023):
The Role of Umbrella States in the Global Nuclear Order
Author: Dr Tytti Erasto, Senior Researcher, Weapons of Mass Destruction Program
Summary:This paper focuses on countries under extended nuclear deterrence arrangements, or “umbrella” states. It investigates the ways in which umbrella states both in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe have supported current nuclear deterrence practices or distanced themselves from such practices. Although these countries tend to align with their nuclear-armed patron on matters related to nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament norms, they have occasionally taken steps away from the allied mainstream position by advocating for antinuclear weapon policies. As long as extended deterrence has a nuclear dimension, allies will need to balance between normative pressures to support nuclear disarmament and alliance commitments that require at least passive support for nuclear deterrence practices.
FY2021
Deterrence, Disruptive Technology, and Disarmament in the Third Nuclear Age
University of Leicester
Research Paper (April 2022):
Deterrence, Disruptive Technology and Disarmament in the Third Nuclear Age (PDFファイル)(680KB)
Author: Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics
EVENT RECORDINGS
〇"Beyond Nuclear Deterrence" -80th year since the atomic bombing and the end of the war event (August 30, 2025)
An event was held to clearly explain research on security that does not rely on nuclear deterrence, which has been pursued toward realizing a peaceful world without nuclear weapons.
〇(Voice Audio) NPT PrepCom 2024 Side Event “Looking Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: Insights and Deliberations toward a World without Nuclear Weapons” (July 24, 2024)
〇HOPe Public Event “International Security and Nuclear Weapons in the Flux of Global Security Dynamics” (June 16, 2024)
〇NPT PrepCom 2023 Side Event “Looking Beyond Nuclear Deterrence: A Midterm Perspective on Nuclear Disarmament” (August 2, 2023)
〇G7 Hiroshima Summit Related Event “Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence” (April 28, 2023)
PAST PROJECT
Research Project on Nuclear Disarmament (FY 2016–FY 2021)
From FY 2016 to FY 2021, HOPe and Hiroshima pursued concrete measures or approaches for nuclear disarmament, commissioning international research institutes including the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House).
